US News : Economists at Goldman Sachs have expressed increased confidence that the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points during their policy meeting in September. However, they noted that an unexpected decline in job numbers on September 6 could potentially lead to a 50 basis point cut.
In a recent report, economists from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. have adjusted their forecast for a US recession in the coming year, lowering the probability from 25% to 20%.
This change is based on the latest retail sales and jobless claims figures. The team, led by Jan Hatzius, noted that should the August jobs report, due on September 6, show positive results, they might revise the recession probability down to 15%, a figure they held for almost a year before the revision on August 2.
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